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Weekly Stock Update

Nifty commenced the last week on a flat note but moved higher to test 4,900 levels during the week. It ended its winning streak after facing stiff resistance at 4,900 level and ended the week below this mark after failing to breach this level decisively. From here, Nifty is expected to move within a range as suggested by its technical indicators as they are giving no clear indications. Also, a high volatility is expected to be the order of the week ahead of the budget and F&O expiry. Strong movements can be expected on the last trading session of the week when the budget will be announced. It can move downwards until 4,750 levels where it has got a strong support and if this level is breached, it can move further downwards until its next major support at 4,650, around which it will also get the support from 200 days exponential moving average. Upside, it has a resistance at 4,950 levels and Nifty can move higher only after breaching this level.

 

Stocks To Watch

AXIS BANK(Sell)

CMP 1100
Target Price 1032
Stop Loss 1134
Support­/Resistance 1030/1100

Comment

• The stock has been rising steeply over the last few sessions and it is now expected to correct.
• Its momentum indicators are also supporting its downward move. Its RSI is close to the overbought zone at 63 levels and the stochastic has also entered the overbought zone at 82 levels, suggesting a downturn.

RURAL ELECTRIFICATION CORP.(F) (Buy)

CMP 213.2
Target Price 228
Stop Loss 205.8
Support­Resistance 213/230

Comment

• The stock has been falling continuously from the last many sessions and it is likely to rebound from here.
• Its momentum indicators are supporting its upward move. Its RSI is close to the oversold zone at 31 levels, MACD is showing maximum divergence and it is about to give a buy signal by crossing above its signal line and the stochastic has also given a buy signal.

 

Domestic market began the week on a subdued note on worries the central bank may take more monetary action to check inflation after the latest data showed that the headline inflation jumped in January 2010. Monthly inflation rose to 8.56% in January compared to 7.31% last month. Indian benchmark indices recouped all the losses on the next day thanks to higher Asian and European markets. Domestic bourses climbed higher as
the week moved ahead with Nifty touching 4,900 level following strong global cues and speculation that global economy is on the path of recovery. Finance minister’s comments that the Indian economy may grow at more
than 8% in the fiscal year 2010-11, after growing at around 7.5% in the current fiscal year ending March 2010 also bolstered sentiments. However, the benchmark key indices snapped last two days’ winning streak as lower Asian stocks weighed on investor sentiment. Ascending food inflation also dampened the market moods back home. Indices dipped in red on the last day of the week as the US Federal Reserve’s decision to raise its discount rate hurt investor sentiment. Sensex closed the week at 16,191.63 up by 39.04 points (0.24%) while Nifty closed at 4,844.90 up
by 18.05 points (0.37%).

Nifty Weekly Top Gainers
Company      % Return
Hindalco         8.43
Ranbaxy         6.55
HDFC Bank     6.00

Nifty Weelky Top Loser
Company          % Return
Bharti Airtel     -11.35
Unitech                -6.15
Reliance Infra   -5.67

Global Markets

US stock markets gained with higher margins during the week (till Thursday) as upbeat economic data and several strong earnings announcements bolstered the market sentiments. The markets also reacted to news from Merck, Hewlett Packard, Deere & Co and Wal-Mart, which reported better than expected earning. Investors bought into stocks after the positive economic data including producer price index, retail sales, industrial production, activity in the manufacturing sector and housing data. In other news, General Growth Properties Inc., the second-largest U.S. mall owner which filed for bankruptcy last year soared after Simon Property Group Inc., the biggest U.S. shopping-mall owner, offered to buy the troubled company.

Asian markets ended on subdued note during the week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged up but gains were limited by concerns over risk factors such as the impact of China’s efforts to curb bank lending and Greece’s fiscal woes. Hang Seng plummeted as lingering worries over China’s policy tightening prompted investors to take profits from the market’s recent rebound. China’s SSE composite closed during the week due to Lunar New Year holiday.

European markets surged significantly during the week. Markets started the week on a buoyant note posting gains on the back of financial and commodity shares. Positive US manufacturing data with higher crude and metal prices lifted the markets higher.
Further, better than expected earnings from Barclays, BNP Paribas, ING, ABB and Capgemini took the markets to 2 week closing high.

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