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INTRADAY CALLS – 30/09/08

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                                       JONES

THE BAIL OUT SCHEME WHICH CREATED AN EUPHORIA IN THE MARKETS IN THE EARLIER TWO DAYS, TURNED OUT TO BE A CATASTROPHE  FOR THE DOW JONES,ON ITS FAILURE TO COME THROUGH. DOW JONES HAVING OPENED LOWER WAS DOWN BY AROUND 250 POINTS UNTIL THE VOTE FAILED ON THE SCHEME AND PLUNGED BY ANOTHER 400 POINTS IN FEW MINUTES AND ENDED THE DAY AT 10365, THE LOWEST LEVEL GIVING AWAY MORE THAN 777 POINTS, THE BIGGEST LOSS SINCE 9/11 AND NASDAQ  AND S&P WERE THE BIGGEST SINGLE DAY LOSERS IN FEW DECADES. THE BAIL OUT HAS BECOME CONTAGIOUS AND AT LEAST FOUR CORPORATES ACROSS EURPOE HAVE  BEEN BAILED OUT DURING THE DAY.  UNDERSTANDABLY, ASIAN MARKETS OPENED MUCH LOWER AND NIKKEI HAS LOST MORE THAN 550 POINTS AT THIS TIME.

NIFTY FUTURE HAD A PREMONITION OF THINGS TO COME AND STARTED FALLING RIGHT FROM THE OPENING BELL AND FELL TO THELOWEST LEVEL OF 3775 DURING THE DAY AND RECOVERED SOME LOST GROUND ON SHORT COVERING TOWARDS THE END AND CLOSED AT 3888.

WE ARE ONE OF THE VERY FEW WHO HAVE BEEN ADVISING ABOUT THIS FALL  FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND NIFTY FUTURE MAY OPEN LOWER TODAY ALSO. 

NIFTY FUTURE SUPP LEVELS 3804,3761, 3650 RESIST 3917,4100.  NIFTY BELOW 3760 MAY GO DOWN TO  3500 LEVELS AND MAY RECOVER FROM THE LOWS IN A DAY OR TWO ON SHORT COVERING. AVOID SHORT IF THE MARKET OPENS DEEP IN THE RED.  WE FEEL THE LEVEL OF 3200 IS POSSIBLE AND HENCE ONLY PARTIAL INVESTMENT BUYING IS RECOMMENDED AT LOW LEVELS. WE MAY ENTER IN TO A MEDIUM TERM BEARISH RANGE  AT THESE LEVELS AND STAY THERE FOR A FEW MONTHS. WITH LOT OF VOLATILITY EXPECTED TODAY WE ADVISE CAUTION ON DAY TRADING.

STOCK CALLS RISKY HENCE NOT TODAY.

DO NOT AVOID SL AND HEDGING IS THE ONLY WAY TO SUSTAIN THE VOLATILE MARKET.HAVE A GOOD DAY. Replies At This ColoumN OR AT vijay.calls@yahoo.co.in

INTRADAY CALLS – 29/09/08

FINALLY, THE BAIL OUT SCHEME RESCUED, WILL IT RESCUE THE ECONOMY?

DOW JONES ON FRIDAY WAS DOWN TO THE LOW OF 10868 IMMEDIATELY AFTER OPENING LOSING 54 POINTS AT THE LOW AND  RECOVERED LATER IN THE DAY ON THE HOPE OF BAILOUT SCHEME AND CLOSED AT 11143, OFF THE DAY`S HIGH OF 11168, GAINING 121 POINTS.  THE MASSIVE FINANCIAL RESCUE PLAN TITLED “EMERGENCY ECONOMIC STABILIZATION ACT OF 2008″  HAS BEEN FINALISED ON SUNDAY, ENDING WEEKS OF UNCERTAINITY ABOUT THE SCHEME.  WHETHER IT WILL END THE UNCERTAINITY IN THE U.S. FINANCIAL MARKET IS A BIG QUESTION. MORE ABOUT THE SCHEME LATER . GDP GROWTH RATE FOR THE SECOND QUARTER AT 2.8%, LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS  READING WAS THE ONLY ECONOMIC NEWS OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE.. ASIAN MARKETS OPENED HIGHER ON RESCUE PLAN AND NIKKEI IS NOW 54 POINT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS CLOSE, BUT SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE DAY`S HIGH.

NIFTY FUTURE ON THE OPENING DAY OF THE OCTOBER SETTLEMENT OPENED LOWER AT 4109 AND NEVER LOKKED UP THEREAFTER AND DROPPED TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE DAY AT 3980 AND CLOSED VERY NEAR AT 3995 LOSING 155 POINTS FROM PREVIOUS CLOSE.

NIFTY FUTURE SUPP LEVELS 3995,3900 RESIST 4100,4197.  EVEN IF NIFTY OPENS HIGHER IT HAS RESISTANCE AT HIGHER LEVELS AND WE EXPECT NIFTY TO CORRECT FROM SUCH LEVELS.  U.S. BAILOUT MAY TEMPORARILY RECOVER MARKETS, BUT THE IMPACT ON HOUSING AND ECONAMY WILL TAKE LONGER TIME TO BOTTOM OUT.  LOCALLY, NUCLEAR DEAL, INFLATION AND CRUDE PRICE WILL HAVE A BEARING ON THE SHORT TERM. WE ADVISE BOOKING PROFITS AT HIGHER LEVELS AS WE FEEL THE BOTTOM IS STILL NOT REACHED. AS WE HAD ADVISED ON FRIDAY, THE NIFTY IS IN THE WEAK ZONE AND WE WILL ADVISE ANY TURNAROUND AS AND WHEN IT HAPPENS.

STOCK CALLS TOMORROW.

DO NOT AVOID SL AND HEDGING IS THE ONLY WAY TO SUSTAIN THE VOLATILE MARKET.HAVE A GOOD DAY. Replies At This ColoumN OR AT vijay.calls@yahoo.co.in

INTRADAY CALLS – 26/09/08

NIFTY  NOT IN THE STRONG TERRITORY

 

DOW JONES   SINCE OPENING MANAGED TO STAY HIGHER ON THURS DAY AND CLOSED AT 11022 GAINING 196 POINTS, A LITTLE OFF FROM DAY`S HIGH OF 11129, DESPITE A STRING OF DISAPPOINTING  ECONOMIC NEWS , IN ANTICIPATION OF THE APPROVAL OF THE BAILOUT PACKAGE.  JOBLESS CLAIM FOR THE WEEK ENDING SEPT 20,  SHOT UP TO 493000, MUCH ABOVE THE EXPECTED LEVEL OF 450000 AND NEW HOME SALES REACHED NEW LOWS AT 460000, AGAIN, WELL BELOW EXPECTATIONS. HOWEVER THE FINAL DECISION ON THE PACKAGE IS STILL AWAY AND MAY TAKE SOME MORE TIME BEFORE BEING FINALISED.  WASHINGTON MUTUAL , THE NATION`S LARGEST THRIFT IS THE NEXT TO GO DOWN  UNDER AND J.P. MORGAN IS LIKELY TO ACQUIRE ITS OPERATIONS AND ITS STOCK PRICE WAS DOWN BY 70% TO $.45 IN AFTER HOURS TRADING. ASIAN MARKETS STARTED POSITIVELY AND NIKKEI IS NOW TRADING MARGINALLY DOWN BY 28 POINTS.

NIFTY SEPTEMBER FUTURE WAS BETWEEN 3800 AND 4600 DURING THE MONTH AS WRITTEN ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE SETTLEMENT. ON THE SETTLEMENT DAY  NIFTY FUTURE OPENED LOWER AT 4175 AND WENT DOWN FURTHER TO THE DAY`S LOW OF 4077 AND CLOSED AT 4110 NEARLY 106 POINTS LOWER FROM THE PREVIOUS SETTLEMENT CLOSE.

NIFTY OCTOBER FUTURE MAY CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SAME RANGE AS THE PREVIOUS MONTH, BUT LOOKS WEAKER THAN EARLIER AND ANY BREAK BELOW 3750 LEVELS MAY TAKE IT TO 3500 LEVELS. 4650 IS STILL THE STRONGEST RESISTANCE LEVEL TO WATCH FOR.  HENCE BUY AT THE LOWER LEVELS WITH STRICT STOP LOSS AND EXIT AROUND THE LEVELS OF 4500. ANY SIGNIFICANT TURN AROUND WILL BE ADVISED IN THIS COLOUMN.

NIFTY FUTURE SUPP LEVELS 4100,4050 RESIST 4197,4255. AVOID LONG BELOW 4100 FOR THE DAY. NIFTY MAY OPEN A LITTLE HIGHER ON U.S. CLOSE AND MAY FIND RESISTANCE AT HIGHER LEVELS WE ADVISE EXIT OF TRADING BUY`S AT RESISTANCE LEVELS AND WAIT FOR THE NEXT TRADE.

WIPRO SUPP 349,342 RESIST 368,372 SELL AT HIGHER LEVEL

HINDALCO BUY 105 SL 102 TGT 110

ARVIND BUY 26 SL 24.5 TGT 28.5,30

BANKBARODA 298,292 RESIST 310,314 BUY

HINDUNILVR SUPP 245 RESIST 252,256 SELL AT HIGHER LEVEL

HINDPETRO SUPP 232,224 RESIST 242,246 SELL

MTNL BUY 89 SL 87 TGT 93,95

RELIANCE SUPP 2018,2000 RESIST 2062,2085 SELL WITH SL 2089

SATYAMCOMP SUPP 322,314 RESIST 334,342,350 BUY

ZEEL SUPP 200,196 RESIST 206,212 BUY

INDIACEM  SUPP 132,127 RESIST 140,148 BUY

CAIRN SUPP 220,215 RESIST 232,236 BUY

DO NOT AVOID SL AND HEDGING IS THE ONLY WAY TO SUSTAIN THE VOLATILE MARKET.HAVE A GOOD DAY. Replies At This ColoumN OR AT vijay.calls@yahoo.co.in

INTRADAY CALLS – 25/09/08

INDECISIVENESS KEEPS MARKETS  RANGE BOUND

 

DOW JONES WAS RANGE BOUND YESTERDAY WITH THE DECISION ON THE BAILOUT SCHEME STILL HANGING AND WAS BETWEEN 10928 AND 10753 DURING THE DAY AND CLOSED MARGINALLY LOWER BY 29 POINTS AT 10825 ON LOWER VOLUMES. ON THE ECONOMIC NEWS SIDE AUGUST EXISTING HOME SALES FELL BY 2.2%, WHICH IS HIGHER THAN ESTIMATES. CRUDE STAYS AROUND $105. ASIAN MARKETS ARE MIXED AND NIKKEI IS DOWN BY OVER 100 POINTS.

NIFTY SEPTEMBER  FUTURE YESTERDAY WAS BETWEEN 4140 AND 4240 AS SAID IN THIS COLOUMN AND RECOVERED FROM THE LOW OF 4143 ON SHORT COVERING AND CLOSED AT 4190GAINING 45 POINTS FROM PREVIOUS CLOSE.

NIFTY SEPTEMBER FUTURE SUPP LEVELS 4140, 4050,3900 RESIST 4240,4318. NIFTY THOUGH MAY BE VOLITILE BEING THE LAST DAY OF THE SETTLEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BETWEEN THE SAME RANGE AS YESTERDAY AND MAY LOSE SOME GROUND IN HTE LATER HALF OF THE DAY. AVOID LONG BELOW 4140.

WIPRO SUPP 367 RESIST 382,392 SELL AT HIGHER LEVEL

HINDALCO BUY 106 SL 104 TGT 112,114

BANKBARODA SUPP 297,292 RESIST 310,322 BUY AT LOWER LEVEL

HINDUNILVR BUY 246 SL 243 TGT 252,256

HINDPETRO SUPP 232,224 RESIST 239,245 BUY

NATIONALUM BUY 412 SL 409 TGT 426,433

RELIANCE SUPP 2028,2000 RESIST 2069,2090

SATYAMCOMP SUPP 320 RESIST 348,366 SELL AT HIGHER LEVEL

BPCL ABOVE 356 TGT 367

ZEEL BUY 196 SL 194 TGT 205

CAIRN SUPP 223 RESIST 235,241 SELL

DO NOT AVOID SL AND HEDGING IS THE ONLY WAY TO SUSTAIN THE VOLATILE MARKET.HAVE A GOOD DAY. Replies At This ColoumN OR AT vijay.calls@yahoo.co.in

INTRADAY CALLS – 24/09/08

BAILOUT SCHEME YET TO BE BAILED OUT

 

$700 BILLION RESCUE PLAN BY THE TREASURY TO BUY ILLIQUID ASSETS FROM FINANCIAL FIRMS DOES NOT SEEM TO COME THROUGH EARLY AS SENATE MEMBERS DEMANDING MORE CLARITY AND SOME MODIFICATION TO THE SCHEME.  DOW JONES  WAS ALTERNATING BETWEEN POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE TERRITORY WITH DAY`S HIGH AT 11143, GAINING 127 POINTS AND DAY`S LOW AT 10833 LOSING 183 POINTS. HOWEVER IT FELL SHARPLY IN THE LAST HOUR  AND CLOSED AT 10854 POINTS NETTING A LOSS OF 161 POINTS. BUFFETT BUYING IN TO  GOLDMAN`S PERPETUAL PREFERRED STOCK FOR $5 BILLION  HELPED THE STOCK TO RECOVER IN THE AFTER HOURS TRADING. ASIAN MARKETS OPENED NEGATIVELY AND NIKKEI IS DOWN BY MORE THAN  140 POINTS AS OF NOW.

NIFTY SEPTEMBER  FUTURE  AFTER OPENING LOWER AT 4158 RECOVERED TO 4244 AND FELL TO THE DAY`S LOW OF 4132 AND CLOSED AT 4145 LOSING 75 POINTS.

NIFTY FUTURE SUPP LEVELS 4140, 4050, 3900 RESIST 4240, 4318. NIFTY FUTURE MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO MOVE ABOVE 4240 FOR THE DAY. WAIT FOR THE NIFTY TO BOTTOM OUT FOR ANY LONG AS WE FEEL THE NIFTY IS POISED FOR THE DOWNSIDE AND MAY RETEST THE LOW LEVELS. AVOID SHORT FOR THE DAY IF IT TRADES ABOVE OF 4140.

WIPRO SUPP 390,381,367 RESIST  407,417 SELL AT HIGH LEVELS

HINDALCO SUPP 106 RESIST 112,115

ACC SUPP 617,610 RESIST 630,636 BUY AT LOWER LEVEL

HINDUNILVR BUY 245 SL 243 TGT 252,256

HINDPETRO SUPP 222 RESIST 240,245

MTNL BUY 88 SL 86 TGT 92,95

RELIANCE SUPP 2000,1947 RESIST 2090,2139 SELL

SATYAMCOMP SUPP 326,318 RESIST 348,366 SELL AT HIGH LEVEL

SBIN SUPP 1490,1430 RESIST 150,1578 SELL AT HIGHER LEVEL

NTPC BELOW 175 TGT 167

GMRINFRA BELOW 87 TGT 83

ZEEL BUY 195 SL 192 TGT 205

CAIRN SUPP 220,215 RESIST 230 SELL AT HIGHER LEVEL

DO NOT AVOID SL AND HEDGING IS THE ONLY WAY TO SUSTAIN THE VOLATILE MARKET.HAVE A GOOD DAY. Replies At This ColoumN OR AT vijay.calls@yahoo.co.in